MARCH 2024 IN
RICK ASTER’S WORLD
Official statistics showing hints of population stability in China and elsewhere are drawing sighs of relief from economists and environmentalists, but financiers are seeing the same numbers and raising alarm bells, some of them using the term “baby bust” in reference to China in particular.
Many regions have showed reduced population growth in recent years, but the hints of population stability in China have created the greatest surprise. It has been official policy in China to encourage families to have only one child, but observers did not expect policy to translate into population stability nearly so quickly.
The current pandemic-influenced birth rates in China might not represent a trend, but experience in other regions shows that birth rates reduced by a pandemic or other adverse circumstances such as famine, depression, or war do not bounce back as soon as conditions improve.
China is drawing extra attention because of its large size and heterogeneous culture. If population stability can happen here, then it is hard to imagine how global population can increase as rapidly as it has in the last century.
While population stability is good news to almost everyone, but some financiers see it as bad news. The reason is that lending money to build the additional buildings required to hold an expanding population has been close to the heart of the financial sector for the last century. Without population growth, the existing stock of buildings might be enough, so that there is little reason to build more, and little chance to lend money for that purpose.
China in particular is already overbuilt, with whole “ghost cities” built in anticipation of population growth that might not arrive for 30 years, if ever. Without rapid population growth, builders and financiers could face losses on a scale the world has never seen.
No other country will ever match the cartoonish imbalances in planning that China is now faced with unwinding, but the same economic work everywhere. Planners see construction as an essential part of economic growth. This certainly does not mean economic growth will come to a stop anywhere, but profit opportunities will shift away from construction and high finance and toward unrelated categories such as personal services.
The shift is not even bad news for construction workers, who are also qualified to work on remodeling of existing buildings. If you look at who is sounding the alarm over population stability, it is only those who have ties to the financial sector. That alone should tell you that, if you are not a bank owner yourself, these are alarms that you do not need to take seriously.
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